We conduct extensive Monte Carlo experiments on non-parametric estimations of duration models with unknown duration dependence and unknown mixing distribution for unobserved heterogeneity. We propose a full non-parametric maximum likelihood approach, based on time-varying lagged explanatory...

In an important paper, Fuhrer and Moore (1995) showed that Taylor (1980)’s staggered wage setting model does not exhibit persistence in inflation; they proposed a simple modification, in which workers cared about the real wages of other workers, which solves this problem. However, we argue...

In this note I bring a new aspect into the so called Island Problem. Given that only cases where there is a suspect reaches the court, what is the consequence for the probability of guilt? I find that it indeed matters for the results that court cases are selected in this way. The analysis...

I derive the exact small sample properties of the instrumental variables estimator using a trigonometric approach. The distribution for the estimation error is decomposed into a product of three components - each with an intuitive interpretation. This approach helps the discussion on what...

Toimialojen ja avainklustereiden tuotannon ja työllisyyden ennusteiden laatimista varten on rakennettu yksityiskohtainen pitkän ajan kehityksen arviointiin soveltuva ennustemalli. Ennustejärjestelmällä on arvioitu avainklustereiden ja muiden toimialojen tuotannon ja työllisyyden kehitystä...

Growth regression economics are haunted by the fact that results are easily overthrown by regressing alternative model specifications. Recent research therefore aims at obtaining robust regression results by systematically running multiple models and picking surviving variables. This note shows...

Estimation of signals at the current boundary of time series is an important task in many practical applications. In order to apply the symmetric filter at current time, model-based approaches typically rely on forecasts generated from a time series model in order to extend (stretch) the time...

We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data...

In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic structure social insurances and politics face real challenges. Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become invaluable...