The thesis of this paper is that Keynes wrote A Treatise on Probability contrasting his view to the frequentist theory, systematised by John Venn, which denied to probability any sort of utility in decision theory. Keynes's problem was of finding an alternative theory to be utilised as a guide...

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

This study proposes a direct estimation method for recovering subjective probability distributions from option prices. We find that the subjective cumulative distribution function and subjective statistics are represented as static portfolios composed of plain vanilla options. The portfolio...