In this article we explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that several activity measures make when predicting inflation in Chile. For that purpose, we use backward-looking Phillips curves and make use of a real-time database to get an evaluation of predictive ability...

En este trabajo se presenta el empalme de las series a nivel de subclases del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) de Chile, para el período que va desde abril-1989 hasta diciembre-2008. La metodología ocupada es la misma que utiliza el Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE) para obtener...

Este documento es una nota metodológica orientada a ayudar a resolver dos problemas prácticos que deben enfrentar típicamente los usuarios no especializados del programa de ajuste estacional X-12-ARIMA: (i) determinar si hay evidencia estadística de la existencia de estacionalidad en la...

The purpose of this work is to develop a leading indicator for the Imacec, a monthly indicator of the Chilean economic activity. The indicator proposed herein is based on the classical methodology of the NBER, but with one major difference: the use of a Ridge regression to aggregate the series....

A common problem in econometric models and multiple regression in general is multicollinearity, which produces undesirable effects on the Least Squares estimators. A possible solution to this problem is the "Ridge" Regression estimator proposed by Hoerl and Kennard (1970). Ridge Regression has...

In this article we derive the density and distribution functions of the stochastic shrinkage parameters of three well-known operational Ridge Regression estimators by assuming normality. The stochastic behavior of these parameters is likely to affect the properties of the resulting Ridge...