This paper investigates the relationship between financial development and firm size. The model shows that the efficiency of the financial system, measured by the level of monitoring costs, affects the extent of risk sharing within an economy and through this channel the availability of external...

This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The statistical approach to artificial neural networks modelling developed by the author is compared to linear modelling and to other three well-known neural network modelling...

In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either additive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change in the...

Micro data from a dental insurance natural experiment is used to analyze why agents opt out of insurance. The purpose is to relate the dropout decision to new information on risk, acquired by the policy holder and the insurer. The results show that agents tend to leave the insurance when...

In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...

We provide characterizations of preferences representable by a Cobb-Douglas utility function.

The full Bayesian treatment of error component models typically relies on data augmentation to produce the required inference. Never stricly necessary a direct approach is always possible though not necessarily practical. The mechanics of direct sampling are outlined and a template for including...

This paper is concerned with maximum likelihood based inference in random effects models with serial correlation. Allowing for individual effects we introduce serial correlation of general form in the time effects as well as the idiosyncratic errors. A straightforward maximum likelihood...

We summarize some methods useful in formulating and solving Hansen-Sargent robust control problems, and suggest extensions to discretion and simple rules. Matlab, Octave, and Gauss software is provided. We illustrate these extensions with applications to the term structure of interest rates, the...

We explore the implications of migrants' self-selection for the determination of immigration policy in a simple model where incentives and resources to migrate vary with skills. We show how self-selection determines the response of potential migrants to immigration policy changes, which is...