In the context of a quantitative real business cycle (RBC) model, we document that shocks to the higher-order moments, especially the skewness, of productivity can have large first-order effects on business cycles. We augment a standard small open economy RBC model with a new feature: a discrete...

We document that most democratic transitions are preceded by lengthy episodes of mass political unrest. These episodes are associated with an increased probability of political disruption and significant macroeconomic losses, especially in non-democracies and even in the absence of violence....

In the context of a quantitative real business cycle (RBC) model, we document that shocks to the higher-order moments, especially the skewness, of productivity can have large first-order effects on economic growth. We augment a standard small-open- economy RBC model with a new feature: a...