Should the long run income elasticity of aggregate import demand be equal to one, as implied by the neoclassical demand theory? Why are many empirical estimates of income elasticities not equal to one, and why are some of them very high? The author addresses these and some other related...

How is exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) measures affected by increasing participation in global value chains? This paper measures ERPT for value-added trade, where intermediate inputs are shared among countries in a back-and-forth manner for producing a single final product. Estimation of...

A Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper, Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models by Xiao-guang Zhang was released on 8 February 2006, in conjunction with the staff working paper, The Armington Model. Armington elasticities specify the degrees of substitution...

This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating cointegration vectors and the...

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand...

Explanations of the persistent deficit in U.S. net exports of goods rest on macroeconomic developments and an asymmetry in elasticities: the income elasticity for imports being larger than the income elasticity for exports. Such macroeconomic developments are not applicable to the equally...

This paper presents some more evidence on the empirical regularity known as `45-degree rule'. We estimate income and price elasticities of trade for 21 countries in a cointegration framework. More specifically, we adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the DOLS procedure to...

In this paper we find that the estimates of Armington elasticities (the elasticity of substitution between groups of products identified by country of origin) obtained from multilateral trade data can differ from those obtained from bilateral trade data. In particular, the former tends to be...

This paper first demonstrates that two-stage technologies together with Lewbel's modifying function framework can provide a general procedure for combining profit functions and nominal value-added functions to obtain new specifications of GNP functions suitable for empirical trade analysis....

To study the effects of tariffs on gross domestic product (GDP), one needs import demand elasticities at the tariff line level that are consistent with GDP maximization. These do not exist. Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga modify Kohli's (1991) GDP function approach to estimate demand elasticities for...