The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement … about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on … forecasting horizons. Only the cyclical inflation disagreement has a significant impact on monetary policy efficacy. High …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between … World War I; the average inflation rate was 3.8 percentage points higher in the second period than in the first. Yet nominal … consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial …