The paper argues that it would be natural to replace the standard normal distribution function by the logistic function in the regulatory Basel II (Vasicek’s) formula. Such a model would be in fact consistent with the standard logistic regression PD modeling approach. An empirical study based...

We use a simple partial adjustment econometric framework to investigate the effects of financial crises on the dynamic properties of yield spreads. We find that crises manifest themselves in the form of substantial disruptions revealed by changes in the persistence of the shocks to spreads as...

This paper describes the current stress-testing framework used at the Czech National Bank to test the resilience of the banking sector. Macroeconomic scenarios and satellite models linking macroeconomic developments with key risk parameters and assumptions for generating dynamic stock-flow...

Credit migrations constitute the building blocks of modern risk management. A firm-specific structural model of credit migration that incorporates the firm’s capital structure and the risk perception of rating agencies is proposed. The proposed model employs the notion of distance-to-default,...

In many domains, the combined opinion of a committee of experts provides better decisions than the judgment of a single expert. This paper shows how to implement a successful ensemble strategy for predicting recovery rates on defaulted debts. Using data from Moody's Ultimate Recovery Database,...

The activity of the commercial banks in Romania, in terms of managing credit risk is guided by rules and regulations imposed by the National Bank of Romania, but is also customized through the existence of some personal risk management policies, determined by the nature and scale of each bank....

This paper discusses issues concerning of the state debt risk related to the Republic of Moldova and the determinants of the state debt in the context of the country risk. Special attention is devoted to analyzing the dynamics and structure of Moldova's foreign debt by currency and sector, in...

As international financial integration gathers pace, interconnectivity has increased tremendously among financial institutions, financial markets and financial systems, a phenomenon to which the recent global financial crisis perhaps provided the best testimony. The interconnectivity among...

We propose a stable non-parametric algorithm for the calibration of pricing models for portfolio credit derivatives: given a set of observations of market spreads for CDO tranches, we construct a risk-neutral default intensity process for the portfolio underlying the CDO which matches these...

This article examines the regulatory framework for managing the credit risk of pension funds in Brazil. We believe that the current framework is not very effective at controlling credit risk, and also overly limits the investment possibilities of pension fund managers. We consider the regulatory...