We propose a new method for analysing multi-period stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in current macro stress tests. The plausibility of a scenario is quantified by its distance from an average scenario. For a given level of plausibility, we search systematically...

This paper investigates the relationship between the two major sources of bank default risk: liquidity risk and credit risk. We use a sample of virtually all US commercial banks during the period 1998–2010 to analyze the relationship between these two risk sources on the bank...

After August 2007 the plumbing system that supplied banks with wholesale funding, the interbank market, failed because toxic assets obstructed the pipes. Banks were forced to squeeze liquidity in a “lemons market” or to ask for liquidity “on tap” from central banks. This paper...

In a sequence of fascinating papers, Leland and Leland and Toft have investigated various properties of the debt and credit of a firm which keeps a constant profile of debt and chooses its bankruptcy level endogenously, to maximise the value of the equity. One feature of these papers is that the...

In the framework of the industrial economics approach to banking we extend the analysis of hedging against default on loans to the case of two types of credit risk. Standard results on the optimal hedge volume and the hedging effectivity from the single-risk case are shown to carry over to the...

Using the industrial organization approach to the microeconomics of banking we model a large (Monti-Klein) bank which is risk neutral and faces credit uncertainty in its loan business. The impact of capital adequacy regulation and the effect of changes in risk on deposit and loan rates are...

Reliability has been largely applied to industrial systems in order to study the various possibilities of systems’ failure. The goal is to establish the chain of events leading to any system’s failure, namely the top event. Looking for the minimal paths leading to any system’s fault allows...

The implantation of the Euro in the eleven of the EU has driven the big banks to expand their presence in other European countries, which may have negative consequences on their credit risk in view of the disadvantages involved in entering new markets. The aim of this paper is to analyse the...