, the results square with simple models. Moreover, permanent inflation shocks accounted for the counter-cyclical and … inversely leading behavior of the real rate during the Great Inflation (1959-1979). Over the Great Moderation (1982 …

also interesting changes in these pattern. During the Great Inflation (1959-1979), permanent shocks to inflation accounted …

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of … relative performance using as benchmarks forecasts from time series models and from other macroeconomic variables. Inflation … be better, in mean squared error terms, than the benchmark forecasts, except for the case of one-yearahead inflation. In …