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The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011371996
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269107
The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely … procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436074
The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely … procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767634
In this article we present four diversified approaches to forecasting main macroeconomic variables without a priori … the dynamic factor models (DFM) frameworks. With respect to the forecasting models based on BACE we propose two methods of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003903
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307784
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
empirical application for the Italian quarterly GDP the short-term forecasting performance is evaluated against other mixed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835085