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Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany: A supply and demand side system of bridge equations

Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011902328

Konjunkturprognosen: Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler

Grömling, Michael - 2005

The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262887

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

Dovern, Jonas; Ziegler, Christina - 2008

forecasting exercises. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273164

Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; … - 2020

Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422115

A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy

Burri, Marc; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2020

Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012609073

The impact of the COVID-19 shock on euro area potential output: A sectoral approach

Bandera, Nicolò; Bodnár, Katalin; Le Roux, Julien; … - 2022

The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278379

Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri - 2009

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420834

Monthly recession predictions in real time: A density forecast approach for German industrial production

Rietzler, Katja; Stephan, Sabine - 2012

In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460518

An estimated two-country EA-US model with limited exchange rate pass-through

De Walque, Gregory; Jeanfils, Philippe; Lejeune, Thomas; … - 2017

out-of-sample forecasting exercise and is able to reproduce most of the cross-series co-variances observed in the data. It …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011786072

Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR-DSGE model

Fernández-de-Córdoba, Gonzalo; Torres, José L. - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 2 (2011) 3, pp. 379-399

quantitative macroeconomics. However, DSGE models were not considered as a forecasting tool until very recently. The objective of … this paper is twofold. First, we compare the forecasting ability of a canonical DSGE model for the Spanish economy with … VAR operates with artificial series obtained from a DSGE model. The results indicate that the out-of-sample forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317125