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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010511233
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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010519455
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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532082
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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schroeder, Michael - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531589
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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269118
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Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance
Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - 2015
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512966
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THE IMPACT OF INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY ON STOCK MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE
DHAOUI, ABDERRAZAK; BOUROUIS, SAAD; BOYACIOGLU, MELEK ACAR - In: Journal of Academic Research in Economics 5 (2013) 1 (June), pp. 35-59
This paper provides the first evidence for empirical sensitivity of trading volume to human psychological factors. We review therefore extensive evidence about how human psychology affects investor behavior and trading volume. Using the data for individual stocks listed on the CAC40 Stock Market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010692156
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An Experimental Study of Overconfidence in Accounting Numbers Predictions
Bar-Yosef, Sasson; Venezia, Itzhak - In: International Journal of Economic Sciences 2014 (2014) 1, pp. 78-89
This paper analyzes experimentally investors' overconfidence when making predictions of financial and accounting … overconfidence. We also compare the extent to which professional analysts differ from other investors in that respect. For this we … overconfidence. The professional analysts were slightly more overconfident than the students. Subjects showed more overconfidence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011195081
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Does Human Psychology Drive Financial Markets? Evidence from International Markets
Dhaoui, Abderrazak; Khraief, Naceur - In: International Journal of Economics and Empirical … 2 (2014) 3, pp. 100-108
This paper provides the first evidence for empirical tests of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases, including among other animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading.We have used daily data for five international capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010902142
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Improving prediction of stock market indices by analyzing the psychological states of twitter users
Porshnev, Alexander; Redkin, Ilya; Shevchenko, Alexey - National Research University Higher School of Economics - 2013
In our paper, we analyze the possibility of improving the prediction of stock market indicators by conducting a sentiment analysis of Twitter posts. We use a dictionary-based approach for sentiment analysis, which allows us to distinguish eight basic emotions in the tweets of users. We compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010723284