Die Wachstumsdynamik der deutschen Wirtschaft war im dritten Quartal des Jahres 2013 verhalten. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist gegenüber dem Vorquartal nur noch um 0,3 Prozent gestiegen. Nach einem Nullwachstum im ersten und einem starken Aufschwung im zweiten Quartal wurde die Konjunktur im...

This paper focuses on finding starting-values for the estimation of Vector STAR models. Based on a Monte Carlo study, different procedures are evaluated. Their performance is assessed with respect to model fit and computational effort. I employ (i) grid search algorithms and (ii) heuristic...

This paper focuses on finding starting-values for maximum likelihood estimation of Vector STAR models. Based on a Monte Carlo exercise, different procedures are evaluated. Their performance is assessed w.r.t. model fit and computational effort. I employ i) grid search algorithms, and ii)...

Der aus digitalen Prozessdaten der Lkw-Mauterhebung berechnete Lkw-Maut-Fahrleistungsindex liefert frühzeitig Anhaltspunkte zur Entwicklung der Industrieproduktion in Deutschland. Während der Coronakrise wird der Index arbeitstäglich aktualisiert, um möglichst kurzfristige Informationen zu...

In Krisenzeiten wie der aktuellen Corona-Pandemie ist der Bedarf an statistischen Daten am aktuellen Rand (Nowcast) zur frühzeitigen Abschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen besonders hoch. Der neu entwickelte experimentelle Frühindikator zur Umsatzentwicklung aus den monatlichen...

This study readdresses the determinants of business cycle synchronisation. We test, on the one hand, whether FDI promoting policies may have consequences for the business cycle comovement between countries, and on the other hand, whether more plausible identification strategies change previous...

I extend the model-based literature on spillover effects of labour market reforms on foreign (un-)employment by allowing for third-country effects. When the workhorse two-country model is enlarged to include a third country, a reform causes an additional indirect effect through a terms-of-trade...

While a widespread consensus exists among macroeconomists that the German labour market reforms in 2003-2005 have successfully contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate, critics claim that the reforms led to wage restraint and consequently consumption dampening accompanied by...

I extend the model-based literature on spillover effects of labour market reforms on foreign (un-)employment by allowing for third-country effects. When the workhorse two-country model is enlarged to include a third country, a reform causes an additional indirect effect through a terms-of-trade...

This study readdresses the determinants of business cycle synchronisation. We test, on the one hand, whether FDI promoting policies may have consequences for the business cycle comovement between countries, and on the other hand, whether more plausible identification strategies change previous...