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This paper studies the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel … risk predict large drops in the average bank-level return on assets (ROA) with a lead time of 3-5 years. Based on quantile … local projections we further show that the negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on the left tail of the future bank …
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In this paper we gauge the degree of interconnectedness and quantify the linkages between global and other systemically important institutions, and the global financial system. We document that the two groups and the financial system become more interconnected during the global financial crisis...
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We develop a methodology to measure the capital shortfall of commercial banks in a market downturn, which we call stressed expected loss (SEL). We simulate a market downturn as a negative shock on interest rate and credit market risk factors that reflect the banks' market-sensitive assets. We...
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