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This paper evaluates the performance of carry trade strategies with implied Taylor rule interest rate differentials and compares the performance statistics of them over the naive carry trade strategy with actual interest rates. Carry trade, a currency speculation strategy, between high-interest...
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target rates from the OIS prices to predict the outcome of monetary policy meetings around the world. In the US, a randomly …-Prämie-Anomalie, der Geldpolitik und Wechselkursdynamik, sowie der Messung der geldpolitischen Erwartungen aus den Vermögenspreisen. Im … Pozdeev) dokumentieren wir einen Trend in den Wechselkurse vor Anpassungen der Geldpolitik in den Industrieländern. Die …
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No. I demonstrate that econometric estimations of nominal interest rate rules may tell little, if anything, about an economy's determinacy properties. In particular, correct inference about the interest-rate response to inflation provides no information about determinacy. Instead, it could...
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Long-term bond yields contain a risk-premium, an important part of which is compensation for inflation risks. The substantial increase in the Fed funds rate in the mid-2000s did not raise long-term US Treasury yields due to the reduction in the term premium (so-called Greenspan conundrum) which...
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Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the...
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