We propose a new methodology to estimate the empirical pricing kernel implied from option data. In contrast to most of the studies in the literature that use an indirect approach, i.e. first estimating the physical and risk-neutral densities and obtaining the pricing kernel in a second step, we...

Employing power kernels suggested in earlier work by the authors (2003), this paper shows how to refine methods of robust inference on the mean in a time series that rely on families of untruncated kernel estimates of the long-run parameters. The new methods improve the size properties of...

This paper studies a model widely used in the weak instruments literature and establishes admissibility of the weighted average power likelihood ratio tests recently derived by Andrews, Moreira, and Stock (2004). The class of tests covered by this admissibility result contains the Anderson and...

In this paper, we propose a single-index panel data model with unobserved multiple interactive fixed effects. This model has the advantages of being flexible and of being able to allow for common shocks and their heterogeneous impacts on cross sections, thus making it suitable for the...

In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure...

In this paper, a model is developed to forecast simultaneously a security's price, growth rate, volatility, and high moments (if applicable). The model has many features. It is built based on its own price growth in a certain time horizon. It is not based on many assumptions such as prices being...

In this paper we analyse recovery rates on defaulted bonds using the Standard and Poor's/PMD database for the years 1981-1999. Due to the specific nature of the data (observations lie within 0 and 1), we must rely on nonstandard econometric techniques. The recovery rate density is estimated...

This paper considers flexible conditional (regression) measures of market risk. Value-at-Risk modeling is cast in terms of the quantile regression function - the inverse of the conditional distribution function. A basic specification analysis relates its functional forms to the benchmark models...

The focus of this paper is an information theoretic-symbolic logic approach to extract information from complex economic systems and unlock its dynamic content. Permutation Entropy (PE) is used to capture the permutation patterns-ordinal relations among the individual values of a given time...

This paper analyzes a family of multivariate point process models of correlated event timing whose arrival intensity is driven by an affine jump diffusion. The components of an affine point process are self- and cross-exciting, and facilitate the description of complex event dependence...