Subjective beliefs play a role in many economic decisions. There is a large theoretical literature on the elicitation … of beliefs, and an equally large empirical literature. However, there is a gulf between the two. The theoretical … literature proposes a range of procedures that can be used to recover beliefs, but stresses the need to make strong auxiliary …

graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing … cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually …

Using a formal propositional language with operators "individual i assigns probability at least a" for countable many a …

graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing … cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …

De Finetti's treatise on the theory of probability begins with the provocative statement PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST …, meaning that probability does not exist in an objective sense. Rather, probability exists only subjectively within the minds … well as on beliefs. Most later authors, from Savage onward, have attempted to disentangle beliefs from values by …

Understanding choice under risk requires knowledge of beliefs and preferences. A variety of methods have been proposed … to elicit peoples’ beliefs. The efficacy of alternative methods, however, has not been rigorously documented. Herein we … use an experiment to test whether an induced probability can be recovered using an elicitation mechanism based on peoples …