Similar Search Results

Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU Water Framework Directive

Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia - 2008

The question of how to deal with uncertainty in environmental decision-making is cur-rently attracting considerable attention on the part of scientists as well as of politicians and those involved in government administration. The existence of uncertainty becomes particularly apparent in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304368

Scaling conditional tail probability and quantile estimators

Cotter, John - 2009

In terms of risk measurement, probability and quantile risk estimation have developed enormously in the past decade … their risk profile accounting for losses (quantiles) at a given likelihood (probability) and a given time frame (holding … series to model the tail returns, allowing them to examine low-probability (out-of-sample) events for single-period horizons …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475704

Decidability in complex social choices

Marengo, Luigi; Pirino, Davide; Settepanella, Simona; … - 2012

process has an high probability to reach a final decision. We also better qualify the degree of manipulability of such a final …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328377

Decidability in complex social choices

Amendola, Gennaro; Marengo, Luigi; Pirino, Davide; … - 2013

In this paper we develop on a geometric model of social choice among bundles of interdependent elements (objects). Social choice can be seen as a process of search for optima in a complex multi-dimensional space and objects determine a decomposition of such a space into subspaces. We present a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328500

Idealizations of uncertainty, and lessons from artificial intelligence

Smith, Robert Elliott - 2015

Making decisions under uncertainty is at the core of human decision-making, particularly economic decision-making. In economics, a distinction is often made between quantifiable uncertainty (risk) and un-quantifiable uncertainty (Knight, Uncertainty and Profit, 1921). However, this distinction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291850

Assessing the likelihood of regional climate change over the Nile River basin and northern Africa: A hybrid assessment

Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Ken - 2015

Projections of regional changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the greater Nile River basin and northern Africa are presented. The probabilistic projections are obtained through a technique that combines projections of the MIT Integrated Global System Model with climate-change...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440682

Idealizations of Uncertainty, and Lessons from Artificial Intelligence

Smith, Robert Elliott - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 10 (2016) 2016-7, pp. 1-40

At a time when economics is giving intense scrutiny to the likely impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global economy, this paper suggests the two disciplines face a common problem when it comes to uncertainty. It is argued that, despite the enormous achievements of AI systems, it would...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443390

Illustrating Probability through Roulette: A Spreadsheet Simulation Model

Seal, Kala Chand; Przasnyski, Zbigniew H - 2005

Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the … example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a … to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441718

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF RACEHORSE EARNINGS AND PROFITABILITY

Vinzant, Patrick L.; Neibergs, J. Shannon - 1999

-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444414

Predictive Modeling of Alumni Donor Behavior

Prue, Lauren - 2010

In recent years, college and universities have relied increasingly upon the charitable contributions of its previous graduates; as the costs of tuition rise substantially, development offices are facing the challenge of creating annual fund campaigns that are minimally expensive while providing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450203