A one period model of a speculative market is analyzed in which a monopolistically privately informed trader strategically exploits his information through trade with a market maker. Both the informed trader and the market maker entertain doubts about the uniqueness of the insider’s...

Statistical inference in predictive regressions depends critically on the stochastic properties of the posited explanatory variable, in particular, its order of integration. However, confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of explanatory variables commonly used in predictive...

This paper examines how productivity changes affect real rates of return and price/earnings ratios in a small open economy. The model provides conditions under which increased productivity in a country’s traded goods sector causes prices of non-traded goods to increase relative to the...

This paper attempts to shed light on the continuing debate regarding executive compensation by comparing the income of S&P 500 CEOs with that of the Presidents of elite private universities. The results reveal that university presidents are paid only a fraction of what CEOs are paid –...

We present a model in which some of the firm’s information (“newâ€) can be disclosed verifiably and some information (“typeâ€) cannot, to show that some firms may voluntarily withhold good news and disclose bad news. We describe an equilibrium in which high-type firms...

We solve a model with two “Lucas trees.†Each tree has i.i.d. dividend growth. The investor has log utility and consumes the sum of the two trees’ dividends. This model produces interesting asset-pricing dynamics, despite its simple ingredients. Investors want to rebalance their...

I examine whether the discount of diversified firms can actually be attributed to diversification itself, using recent econometric developments about causal inference. The value effect of diversification is unbiasedly estimated by matching diversified and specialized firms on the propensity...

Data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange identify the originator of each submitted order, and there are no designated dealers or specialists. We study marketable order imbalances, i.e., the net order flow resulting from trades that demand immediacy. We distinguish imbalances by trader type...

Data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange identify the originator of each submitted order. We study order imbalances categorized by trade size and by investor type, (individuals, domestic institutions, foreign institutions.) Aggregate order imbalances for a given stock are positively autocorrelated...