We estimate the equity premium using dividend and earnings growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. Our estimates for 1951 to 2000, 2.55 percent and 4.32 percent, are much lower than the equity premium produced by the average stock return, 7.43 percent. Our evidence suggests...

The value premium in U.S. stocks returns is robust. The positive relation between average return and book-to-market equity (BE/ME) is as strong for 1929-63 as for the subsequent period studied in previous papers. Like others, we also find a size premium in stock returns. Small stocks have higher...

There is a strong presumption in economics that, in a competitive environment, profitability is mean reverting. We provide corroborating evidence. In a simple partial adjustment model, the estimated rate of mean reversion is about 40 percent per year. But a simple partial adjustment model with a...

We use cross-section regressions to study how a firm's value is related to dividends and debt. With a good control for profitability, the regressions can measure how the taxation of dividends and debt affects firm value. Simple tax hypotheses say that value is negatively related to dividends and...

Previous work shows that average returns on common stocks are related to firm characteristics like size, earnings/price, cashflow/price, book-to-market equity, past sales growth, long-term past return, and short term past return. Because these patterns in average returns apparently are not...

We study whether the behavior of stock prices, in relation to size and book to market equity (BE/ME), reflects the behavior of earnings. Consistent with rational pricing, high BE/ME signals persistent poor earnings and low BE/ME signals strong earnings. Moreover, stock prices forecast the...

We estimate that the average value of a dollar invested in the U.S. corporate sector is $1.18. When we delete utilities and current assets, where opportunities for value added seem limited, the estimate jumps to $1.68. We use cross-section regressions to study how value is related to dividends...

We use bootstrap simulations to examine the properties of long-horizon U.S. stock market returns. Distributions of continuously compounded returns converge toward normal distributions as we extend the horizon from one to 30 years, and distributions of dollar payoffs converge toward lognormal. We...

We use the cross-section regression approach of Fama and MacBeth (FM 1973) to construct cross-section factors corresponding to the time-series factors of Fama and French (FF 2015). Time-series models that use only cross-section factors provide better descriptions of average returns than...

The aggregate portfolio of U.S. equity mutual funds is close to the market portfolio, but the high costs of active management show up intact as lower returns to investors. Bootstrap simulations suggest that few funds produce benchmark adjusted expected returns sufficient to cover their costs. If...