We explore the notion of "verifiability" by analyzing a simple model of evidence production in contractual relationships with complete information. We characterize implementability in terms of the existence and form of "hard evidence." We provide results on maximal and minimal evidence...

The monetary character of trade, the existence of a common medium of exchange, is derived as an outcome of the economic general equilibrium in a class of examples. Two constructs are added to an Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium model: market segmentation with multiple budget constraints (one at...

Economics is primarily a non-experimental science. Typically, we cannot generate new data sets on which to test hypotheses independently of the data that may have led to a particular theory. The common practice of using the same data set to formulate and test hypotheses introduces data-snooping...

This paper explores the impact on older workers of new technologies that change skill requirements. Older workers, with older skills and less skills than prime-age workers, will suffer in comparison. Furthermore, if skill acquisition is costly, older workers have less incentive to acquire new...

This paper presents a class of examples where a nonmonetary economy converges in a tatonnement process to a monetary equilibrium. Exchange takes place in organized markets characterized by an array of trading posts where each pair of goods may be traded for one another. A barter equilibrium with...

This paper presents a test of the hypothesis that employers in suburban locations are more likely to discriminate against African-Americans than employers located in central cities. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we compare central city-suburban differences in racial hiring outcomes...

The local Whittle (or Guassian semiparametric) estimator of long range dependence, proposed by Kunsch (1987) and analyzed by Robinson (1995a), has a relatively slow rate of convergence and a finite sample bias that can be large. In this paper, we generalize the local Whittle estimator to...

We employ a comprehensive matched employer-employee data set for Brazil to analyze wage determinants and compare results to Abowd, Kramarz, Margolis and Troske (2001) for French and U.S. manufacturing. Returns to education and experience in Brazilian manufacturing exceed those of the other...

In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of different methods of forecasting the aggregate of spatially correlated variables. Small sample simulations confirm the asymptotic result that improved forecasting performance can be obtained by imposing a priori constraints on the amount of...

We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing...