In this paper we present several new ¯ndings on the NoVaS transformation approach for volatility forecasting introduced by Politis (2003a,b, 2007). In particular: (a) we present a new method for accurate volatility forecasting using NoVaS ; (b) we introduce a \time- varying" version of NoVaS...

In aggregate U.S. data, exogenous shocks to labor productivity induce highly persistent and hump-shaped responses to both the vacancy-unemployment ratio and employment. We show that the standard version of the Mortensen-Pissarides matching model fails to replicate this dynamic pattern due to the...

We present the results of an in-depth study in a small Southern Illinois town looking at the public's preferences with respect to reducing trihalomethanes (THMs) in their public drinking water system. THMs are an interesting environmental risk to study. First they are a low-level risk created as...

Though one of the pillars of the theory of international trade, the extreme predictions of the Ricardian model have made it unsuitable for empirical purposes. A seminal contribution of Eaton and Kortum (2002) is to demonstrate that random productivity shocks are sufficient to make the Ricardian...

Every subjective state space with sufficient (e.g., Euclidean) structure contains almost-objective events that approximate, and in the limit attain, the standard properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether they are expected...

This paper provides characterization theorems for preferences that can be represented by the minimum, the maximum, and the sum of components, or combinations of these forms. It contains a discussion of applications to social choice.

We study the cyclical behavior of job loss and hiring using CPS worker flow data, adjusted for margin error and time aggregation error. The band pass filter is used to isolate cyclical components. We consider both total worker flows and transition hazard rates within a unified framework. Our...

Starting from Hendricks and McAfee's (2000) example of the Allies' decision to feint at Calais and attack at Normandy on D-Day, this paper models misrepresentation of intentions to competitors or enemies. Allowing for the possibility of bounded strategic rationality and rational players'...

Adding a stage of signal acquisition to the expected utility model shows that Bayesian updating results in a well de¯ned law of demand for financial information when asset return distributions are conjugate priors to signals such as in the gamma-Poisson case. Signals have a positive marginal...