Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell...

Empirical analysis often involves using inexact measures of desired predictors. The bias created by the correlation between the problematic regressors and the error term motivates the need for instrumental variables estimation. This paper considers a class of estimators that can be used when...

In this paper, we propose a new family of multivariate loss functions to test the rationality of vector forecasts without assuming independence across variables. When only one variable is of interest, the loss function reduces to the flexible asymmetric family proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and...

This paper derives sufficient conditions for global identification in nonlinear models characterized by a finite number of unconditional moment restrictions. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a set of assumptions that are alternative to those of Gale-Nikaidô-Fisher-Rothenberg,...

Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell...

Theoretical literature in finance has shown that quantifying the risk of financial time series amounts to measuring their expected shortfall, also known as tail Value at Risk. Unfortunately, little empirical work has been devoted to the problem of modeling and inference of such risk measures...