Forecasting ability of several parameterizations of ACD models are compared to benchmark linear autoregressions for inter-trade durations. The estimation of parametric ACD models requires both the choice of a conditional density for durations and the specification of a functional form for the...

Time varying correlations are often estimated with Multivariate Garch models that are linear in squares and cross products of returns. A new class of multivariate models called dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models is proposed. These have the flexibility of univariate GARCH models coupled...

Value at Risk (VaR) has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and regulatory purposes. VaR is defined as the value that a portfolio will lose with a given probability, over a certain time horizon (usually one or ten days). Despite its...

Utilizing open-close returns, close-close returns and volume data, we examine the reaction of the Treasury futures market to the periodically scheduled announcements of prominent U.S. macroeconomic data. Heterogeneous persistence from scheduled news vs. non-scheduled news is revealed. Strong...

In this paper we analyze and interpret the quote price dynamics of 100 NYSE stocks with varying average trade frequencies. We specify an error-correction model for the log difference of the bid and the ask price, with the spread acting as the error-correction term, and include as regressors the...

This paper proposes a new approach to modeling financial transactions data. A new model for discrete valued time series is proposed in the context of generalized linear models. Since the model is specified conditional on both the previous state, as well as the historic distribution, we call the...

In this paper, we develop the theoretical and empirical properties of a new class of multivariate GARCH models capable of estimating large time-varying covariance matrices, Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH. We show that the problem of multivariate conditional variance...

This paper aims to bridge the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long run impact of each innovation is time varying and stochastic. Frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. The...

In this paper, we examine the impact of market activity on the percentage bid-ask spreads of S&P 100 index options using transaction data. We propose a new market microstructure theory called a derivative hedge theory, in which option market percentage spreads will be inversely related to the...

Recent empirical work has studied point processes of transactions in financial markets and observed clear time dependent patterns in these arrival times. However these studies do not examine the timing of quoted price changes. This paper formulates a bivariate point process to jointly analyze...