The principal argument of the paper is that in an incomplete information setting, where the private sector lacks information on goverment objectives and has to learn about the policy rule by direct observation and estimation, simple `sub-optimal' rules may outperform the more complicated rule...

In this paper the surprising conclusion of Smith and Smith (1990) that the prospect of Britain's return to gold in 1925 had the effect of weakening sterling is subjected to critical analysis. It is shown that this conclusion is reversed when the trend in the UK money stock prior to joining the...

This paper pursues two objectives. One is to generalize the Kalman Filter to dynamic models with rational expectations which include current expectations of future endogenous variables. A second objective is to ilustrate two applications of this estimation procedure to stochastic rational...

Focused on the « rational expectations hypothesis», which has served as the foundation of modeling and empirical research in financial microeconomics under the heading of « efficient market hypothesis» (EMH), this paper is dedicated firstly to provide, through a careful analysis of some...

Abstract ?' The first section of the paper is aimed at elaborating in some more depth the concept of rationality. Both the mainstream and behavioral approaches to market efficiency are grounded in a « substantive» and thus necessarily unique concept of rationality. The heterodox current, on...

During the decade of the 1970’s the US economy unexpectedly suffered from “stagflation” namely, high unemployment, slowed economic growth and high rates of inflation. During the 1980’s the major macroeconomic problem became high interest rates and massive government deficits....

Most prices and interest rates display fluctuating levels that embody extractable energy and equivalent amounts of money. Such fluctuations are also associated with varying degrees of uncertainty. Shannon's derivations of spectral entropy and information content offer computational techniques...

The validity of the rational expectations hypothesis is explored using 12 years direct individual expectations data derived from the BHPS. The usage of micro data drives off the possibility of spurious rejections caused by the existence of micro-heterogeneity. And the 12 years BHPS micro panel...

Workers can have good or bad work habits. These traits are transmitted from one generation to the next through a learning and imitation process, which depends on parents' investment in the trait and the social environment where children live. We show that if a sufficiently high proportion of...

This note shows that permanent uctuations in the Cobweb model - though inconsistent with a rational expectations equilibrium - can be justified as being rational when reinterpreting the model in the theory of rational beliefs.