Kim, Hyeongwoo; Jackson, John; Saba, Richard - In: Journal of Forecasting 28 (2009) 2, pp. 145-165
We develop a model to forecast the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) interest rate setting behavior in a nonstationary discrete choice model framework by Hu and Phillips (2004). We find that if the model selection criterion is strictly empirical, correcting for nonstationarity is...