We propose a new family of easy-to-implement realized volatility based forecasting models. The models exploit the asymptotic theory for high-frequency realized volatility estimation to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. By allowing the parameters of the models to vary explicitly with the...

We introduce two multivariate constant conditional correlation tests that require little knowledge of the functional relationship determining the conditional correlations. The first test is based on artificial neural networks and the second one is based on a Taylor expansion of each unknown...

MIMIC model and two versions of the Randomized Response (RR) Technique are employed to estimate the size of the underground economy (UE) in Turkey. The RR estimate for 1998 is 28% of ‘measured’ GDP. Over the period from 1970 to 1998, the size of the UE is found to vary between 10% and 45%....

We extend the class of M-tests for a unit root analyzed by Perron and Ng (1996) and Ng and Perron (1997) to the case where a change in the trend function is allowed to occur at an unknown time. These tests M(GLS) adopt the GLS detrending approach of Dufour and King (1991) and Elliott, Rothenberg...

Taking into account that one of the most important factors which have caused the financial crisis was the bad risk management practices in banks we want to confirm the need to develop more efficient risk management practices. The fact that return distributions are characterized by time varying...

It is common knowledge that corruption is harmful to the economic development, mainly because it reduces the level of foreign investments. The aim of this paper is to find the determinant factors for the corruption phenomenon in Romania and to assess the effects that it has on economic growth....

This paper presents an empirical analysis of volatility in GDP real growth rates for Portugal over the period 1960-2010. The objectives of this paper are threefold: (1) to assess the occurrence of “the Great Moderation” in Portugal and identify the timings of volatility changes; (2) to...

We exploit the richness of a large data set of daily and monthly business cycle indicators by pooling them to produce Nowcast of contemporaneous real GDP growth. We conduct predictions based on a pooling of bivariate forecasts which uses these indicators as predictors of GDP (Nowcast with...

La toma de decisiones de política económica requiere estimaciones del comportamiento de la actividad económica en tiempo real. Sin embargo, la información utilizada solo está disponible a nivel de indicadores de actividad y de encuestas de opinión, los cuales suelen tener distintas...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that the open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to...