We propose a general GARCH framework that allows the predict volatility using returns sampled at a higher frequency than the prediction horizon. We call the class of models High FrequencY Data-Based PRojectIon-Driven GARCH, or HYBRID-GARCH models, as the volatility dynamics are driven by what we...

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX investment grade index (CDX-IG) into a permanent and a stationary component. We explain the evolution of the two components in relating them to monetary policy and stock market variables....

This study examines the degree of price-integration between aggregate equity market indices of Hong Kong, the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A and B share markets, and the international Brent crude oil price. The application of Vector Autoregressive methods reveals that the regions markets are...

We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed at high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes. We introduce a flexible point-mass...

We introduce easy to implement regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily information and provide real-time forecast updates of the current (nowcasting) and future quarters. Our...

The financial markets stylized facts, volatility and its relationship with returns tested empirically in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). ARMA- ARCH type models including two symmetric conditional hetroscedastic models; ARMA (1, 1) - ARCH (1) and ARMA (1, 1) - GARCH (1, 1) and two asymmetric...

We derive a measure of aggregate systemic risk, designated CATFIN, that complements bank-specific systemic risk measures by forecasting macroeconomic downturns six months into the future using out-of-sample tests conducted with US, European and Asian bank data. Consistent with bank...

In this paper, I study the effect of remittances on economic growth of the Fiji Islands. I provide empirical evidences based on data for the period 1979-2007 that remittances have a positive and significant impact on growth of Fiji's economy. The investigation also indicates the need to...

The link between remittances and economic growth is a controversial subject. While for some countries with relatively high and perpetual remittances inflow, the impact on growth may be positive, but this is not the case for all the remittance receiving countries. In this study, we use the Bounds...

In this paper, we propose a Markov Chain Quasi-Monte Carlo (MCQMC) approach for Bayesian estimation of a discrete-time version of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. The Bayesian approach represents a feasible way to estimate SV models. Under the conventional Bayesian estimation method for SV...