This paper explores the usefulness of bagging methods in forecasting economic time series from linear multiple regression models. We focus on the widely studied question of whether the inclusion of indicators of real economic activity lowers the prediction mean-squared error of forecast models...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single-period horizon with increasing...

En este artículo se estudia el comportamiento de la tasa de crecimiento del PIB colombiano entre 1982-2008 a partir de un modelo SETAR (Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive), empleando la metodología propuesta por Tsay (1989) y Tong (1990) para la detección de no linealidades relacionadas...

The asymptotic distribution of maximum likelihood estimators is derived for a class of exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. The result carries over to models for duration and realised volatility that use an exponential link function. A key...

In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive estimation of the parameters in an auxiliary model. The learning scheme employed by the agents belongs to the class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose gain sequence is...

This paper estimates a pooled (fixed-effects) FDI investment function that seeks to identify some of the major economic and institutional determinants of FDI flows to nine major Latin American countries during the 1980-2001 period. First, it develops a conceptual framework of analysis that seeks...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the role of agriculture in economic growth and its interactions with other sectors of the Tunisian economy. Design/methodology/approach – Johansen's multivariate approach is used to study the cointegration of the different sectors of the...

We propose in this article the use of the Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Robinson (QMLE, 1995a) for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in the real output and in the growth rate series of France, Italy and the U.K. This method is semiparametric and is robust to the different...

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and...

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid con?dence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive im- plementation of a...