This paper studies the following conceptual question: in what sense is the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing similar to the two-period no-arbitrage theorem (a.k.a., Farkas lemma)? The purpose of studying this question is (1) to study the information that can be extracted from prices of...

Ross (2015) shows an elegant recovery theorem but follow-up papers show it does not work empirically. BHS (2016) proposes an explanation: the transition-independent assumption is equivalent to setting the martingale component to be 1. However, I argue that the transition-independent assumption...

This note traces the past and guesses at the future of concepts in quantitative risk management by looking at the history of its vocabulary and seeing which newly introduced words have survived and prospered. It is adapted from a talk on Future Innovations in Risk Management, presented at the...

What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behavior? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, we approach these topics by exploring the consequences of two simple hypotheses about risk.The...

In this study, we use a factor model in order to decompose sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads into default, liquidity, systematic liquidity and correlation components. By calibrating the model to sovereign CDSs and bonds we are able to present a better decomposition and a more accurate...

We formalize the notion of local time risk premium in the context of a theory in which the pricing kernel is a general diffusion process with spanned and unspanned components. We derive results on the expected excess return of options on bond futures. These results are organized around our...

The CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index has outperformed the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index by approximately 1.1 percent per year between 1986 and 2015. That is pretty impressive. But troubling. Yes – troubling – because the theory of put-call parity tells us that such outperformance should be almost...

We discuss a simple, exactly solvable model of stochastic stock dynamics that incorporates regime switching between healthy and distressed regimes. Using this model, which is analytically tractable, we discuss a way of extracting expected returns for stocks from realized CDS spreads,...

Australian Steve Keen was, in fact, one of just 13 registered economists , out of a global total of around 36,000 (yes that really comes out as 0.04%), who actually anticipated the global financial crisis.Knowing this, I think it’s almost impossible not to want to read his latest book,...

In recent weeks and months, a number of market commentators have drawn comparisons between the prevailing economic landscape and previous financial crises, episodes and events. These have ranged from talk of a new ‘Volcker Shock’ to a repeat of the 1987 stockmarket crash, the dot.com burst...