In the context of a standard model of optimal monetary policy, I argue that expectations should be treated as adaptive rather than rational. This argument is justified by considering the rational expectations equilibrium of this model as the limit point of a sequence in which agents...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their...

We test the theoretical prediction that profit sharing reduces worker separations and by doing so increases the incidence of training. Using individual level UK data, we confirm that profit sharing is a robust determinant of lower separation rates and of greater training incidence. Critically,...

We establish the effects of salaries on worker performance by exploiting a natural experiment in which some workers in a particular occupation (football referees) switch from short-term contracts to salaried contracts. Worker performance improves among those who move onto salaried contracts...

Profit sharing generates conflicting changes in the relationship between supervisors and workers. It may increase cooperation and helping effort. At the same time it can increase direct monitoring and pressure by the supervisor, and mutual monitoring and peer pressure from other workers that is...

This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long...

This paper investigates the impact of perceived job autonomy on job satisfaction. We use the fifth sweep of the National Educational Longitudinal Study (1988-2000), which contains personally reported job satisfaction data for a sample of individuals eight years after the end of compulsory...

Panel data from the United Kingdom are used to estimate a wage curve that allows simultaneously for time, individual, and spatial effects and which thus finesses the problem of grouped data bias. Once allowance is made for the multilevel and cross-classified nature of the data, estimates of the...

This paper addresses the intergenerational transmission of education and investigates the extent to which early school leaving (at age 16) may be due to variations in parental background. An important contribution of the paper is to distinguish between the causal effects of parental income and...

This paper examines the impact of an increase in the school leaving age on high school teachers' absence behaviour. We estimate differ- ence in difference models of absenteeism using count data approaches. Employing data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey, our findings suggest that high school...