Dependence modelling and estimation is a key issue in the assessment of portfolio risk. When measuring extreme risk in terms of the Value-at-Risk, the multivariate normal model with linear correlation as its natural dependence measure is by no means an ideal model. We suggest a large class of...

We analyze the time-dependence of exchange rate correlations using a new multivariate GARCH model. This model consists of two parts. First, we transform the exchange rate changes into their principal components and specify univariate GARCH models for all components. Second, we use the inverse of...

This profile of Jean-Michel Grandmont is based on several interviews we had with him between September 2016 and April 2017. The interviews took place at our CREST offices, located at that time in Malakoff, just south of Paris. The objective of the profile is twofold. First, we trace the career...

This profile of Jean-Michel Grandmont is based on several interviews we had with him between September 2016 and April 2017. The interviews took place at our CREST offices, located at that time in Malakoff, just south of Paris. The objective of the profile is twofold. First, we trace the career...

The economy is an adaptive and evolving complex system. The recognition of this fact has produced, over the last few years, a gradual but firm shift on the direction taken by mainstream economic thought. The representative agent paradigm is giving place to settings of interacting heterogeneous...

Goodwin's Predator-Prey model is structurally unstable. In its pure form, the model has an equilibrium that is neither stable nor unstable. Ploeg showed that relaxing the hypothesis of fixed proportion technology would stabilize the equilibrium. On the other hand, Goodwin showed that the...

In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy. We make use of a new data base of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models: the Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005) model, the Smets and...

In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007) and...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response matching estimator. The existing asymptotic theory for this estimator does not cover situations in which the number of impulse response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model...