We develop a simple model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that is consistent with a number of stylized features of the data. In particular, the model predicts positive as well as zero trade flows across pairs of countries, and it allows the number of exporting firms to vary...

This study investigates the impact of union organization on the wages and labor practices of establishments newly organized in the 1980s. It uses a research design in which establishments are "paired" with their closest nonunion competitor. It finds that, unionism had only a modest effect on...

This paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real GNP. We estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post-war quarterly data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We compare these estimates with Monte...

We study the full equilibrium dynamics of a two-country world economy with a floating exchange rate, traded and nontraded goods, and explicit modeling of the use of money. The resulting exchange rate equation depends on several details of the economic structure, such as the supply structure and...

The massive deficit in the U.S. trade and current accounts is one of the most striking features of the current global economy and, to some observers, one of the most worrying. Although the current account deficit finally began to shrink in 2007, it remained at more than 5 percent of...

The optimal design of a tax system is a topic that has long fascinated economic theorists and flummoxed economic policymakers. This paper explores the interplay between tax theory and tax policy. It identifies key lessons policymakers might take from the academic literature on how taxes ought to...

We develop a monopolistically competitive model of trade with firm heterogeneity—in terms of productivity differences—and endogenous differences in the "toughness" of competition across markets—in terms of the number and average productivity of competing firms. We analyse...

We examine the role of off-path “superstitions†in macro-economics, and show how a false belief about off-path play is the key element underlying both the Lucas Critique and the game-theoretic concept of self-confirming equilibrium. However, the impact of false beliefs in these two...

This paper axiomatizes the robust control criterion of multiplier preferences introduced by Hansen and Sargent (2001). The axiomatization relates multiplier preferences to other classes of preferences studied in decision theory, in particular, the variational preferences recently introduced by...

As demonstrated by the email game of Rubinstein (1989), the predictions of the standard equilibrium models of game theory are sensitive to assumptions about the fine details of the higher order beliefs. This paper shows that models of bounded depth of reasoning based on level-k thinking or...