Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “<i>K</i>-initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when <i>K</i> is large. These strategies first...

BACKGROUND: Policymakers have recently proposed ways of providing health care coverage for an increased number of uninsured persons. However, there are few data that show how the incidence and duration of periods in which persons do not have insurance have changed over time. METHODS: We used two...

This paper focuses on the analysis of efficiency, peakedness, and majorization properties of linear estimators under heavy-tailedness assumptions. We demonstrate that peakedness and majorization properties of log-concavely distributed random samples continue to hold for convolutions of...

This paper studies the effect of randomness in per-period matching on the long-run outcome of non-equilibrium adaptive processes. If there are many matchings between each strategy revision, the randomness due to matching will be small; our question is when a very small noise due to matching has...

Let $\xi_1, \ldots, \xi_n$ be independent random variables with ${\bf E}\xi_i=0,$ ${\bf E}|\xi_i|^t<\infty$, $t>2$, $i=1,\ldots, n,$ and let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \xi_i.$ In the present paper we prove that the exact constant ${\overline C}(2m)$ in the Rosenthal inequality $$ {\bf E}|S_n|^t\le C(t) \max...</\infty$,>

Players choose an action before learning an outcome chosen according to an unknown and history-dependent stochastic rule. Procedures that categorize outcomes, and use a randomized variation on fictitious play within each category are studied. These procedures are “conditionally...

Three main types of mortgages are fixed interest contracts which automatically fall due on the sale of a dwelling, fixed rate loans which are assumable by a buyer, and floating rate instruments. When interest rates rise, the fall in the economic value of these assets in savings and loan...

The explosion in the 21st century of terrorist activities by Islamic radicals in the United States, Europe and Asia requires reforming the institutions for domestic counterterrorism (CT) and new international relations among individual national CT organizations. This paper discusses the...

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash...

Increases in the cost of providing health insurance must have some effect on labor markets, either in lower wages, changes in the composition of employment, or both. Despite a presumption that most of this effect will be in the form of lower wages, we document in this paper a significant effect...