Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...

In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...

Little is known about the economic sources that may generate the abnormal returns observed in put index options. We show that the learning process followed by investors may be one such source. We develop an equilibrium model under partial information in which a rational Bayesian learner prices...

Little is known about the economic sources that may generate the abnormal returns observed in put index options. We show that the learning process followed by investors may be one such source. We develop an equilibrium model under partial information in which a rational Bayesian learner prices...

We examine transaction-level data from Intrade's 2012 presidential winner market for the entire two-year period for which trading occurred. The data allow us to compute key statistics, including volume, transactions, aggression, directional exposure, holding duration, margin, and profit for each...

Mispricing (the difference between prices and their underlying fundamental values) is an important characteristic of markets. The literature on the topic consists of many different measures. This state of affairs is unsatisfactory, since it is not clear to which extent results are sensitive to...

The unmediated call auction is a useful trading mechanism to aggregate dispersed information. Its ability to incorporate information of a single informed insider, however, is less well understood. We analyse this question by presenting a simple call auction game where both auction prices and...