This paper assesses the relative merits of panel time series models in forecasting sovereign default. It explores the contentious issue of whether controlling for time-series and country heterogeneity is important in forecasting emerging market default. For this purpose, it uses conventional...

The authors test Paul De Grauwe’s eurozone fragility hypothesis using a time window around the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme. The findings reveal significant contagion from Spain to other eurozone countries, but solely during the pre-announcement period....

Are Islamic banks inherently more stable than conventional banks? We address this question by applying a survival analysis based on the Cox proportional hazard model to a comprehensive sample of 421 banks in 20 Middle and Far Eastern countries from 1995 to 2010. By comparing the failure risk for...

We review the time series econometrics package TSMod. The new features in TSMod 4.03, released in April 2004, are described and its potential for teaching is analysed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.