Several theoretical models of money demand imply non-linear functional forms for the aggregate demand for money characterized by smooth adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. In this Paper, we propose a non-linear equilibrium correction model of US money demand, which is shown to be stable...

The Calvo contract Phillips Curve is widely indexed for general inflation, using either core inflation or other backward-looking formulae. Such a Phillips Curve implies a high and persistent degree of nominal rigidity. It is argued here that optimal indexation would by contrast use the rational...

This paper reviews the relationship between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and Inflation both in high income economies (as proposed in Campillo and Miron 1997 and Temple 1998) and in developing countries (as proposed in Brumm 2006)1 when a variety of Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance...

We investigate the nature of the inflation bias in a model that exhibits asymmetries in preferences and non–normality in shocks but simplifies to the classic Barro-Gordon problem as a special case. The inflation bias is shown to depend on the trade-off between preference, structural and...

Nominal price and wage rigidity renders monetary policy effective over output. However, this effectiveness extends, under widely used overlapping-wage and Calvo-contract Phillips Curves, to planned monetary policy (‘exploitability’) and not merely to policy surprises. We argue that within...

We fit nonlinearly mean-reverting models to real dollar exchange rates over the post-Bretton Woods period, consistent with a theoretical literature on transaction costs in international arbitrage. The half lives of real exchange rate shocks, calculated through Monte Carlo integration, imply...

Two versions of a fractionally cointegrating vector error correction model (FVECM) are presented. In the case of regular cointegration, linear combinations of fractionally integrated variables are integrated to lower order. Generalized cointegration is defined as the case where the cointegrating...

The purpose in this article is to demonstrate that buying more than one ticket in a lottery is readily explicable in models of utility that permit gambling at actuarially unfair odds. However, contrary to popular view, we show this choice cannot be explained in terms of a variance-skew trade-off.

This paper demonstrates that the intuitively appealing argument based on the postulated trade-off between expected return, variance and skewness of return of a risk-averse gambler does not provide an explanation of observed betting behaviour. It is shown how the expected utility of a...