In this paper we discuss various indicators of default for consumer loans in Chile. In particular, we propose an indicator based on write-offs, which can be interpreted as a probability of default. The proposed indicator replicates the level and the dynamic of the default frequency reported in a...

In this paper we compute the impact of the yield spread on output growth, based on a standard DSGE model. As it is supported by empirical literature, we found that yield spread can be used only to forecast output growth for short-term horizons (less than 2 years). Moreover, the size of that...