From 1973 to 2014, the common stock of U.S. banks with loan growth in the top quartile of banks over a three-year period significantly underperforms the common stock of banks with loan growth in the bottom quartile over the next three years. The benchmark-adjusted cumulative difference in...

The recent notion of Average Internal Rate of Return (AIRR) [Magni 2010, The Engineering Economist, 55(2), 150-180] completely solves the long-standing problem of the internal rate of return (IRR). While the AIRR is a return measure, this paper presents a cash-flow measure, namely the ratio of...

This paper aims to provide a foundation for the notion of economic rate of return and investigate its relations with accounting rates of return. Introducing the notion of depreciation class (the set of depreciation schedules with the same aggregate book value) it is shown that the mean of the...

The first chapter Discrete Time Models in Nguyen Van Huu and Vuong Quan Hoang's Mathematical Methods in Finance, written in Vietnamese, published by Vietnam National University Press, Hanoi, Vietnam, March 2007. This beginning chapter discusses discrete time models used widely in financial...

Modern investors face a high-dimensional prediction problem: thousands of observable variables are potentially relevant for forecasting. We reassess the conventional wisdom on market efficiency in light of this fact. In our model economy, which resembles a typical machine learning setting, N...

This paper deals with capital budgeting decisions under uncertainty. We present an Aggregate Return On Investment (AROI), obtained as the ratio of total (undiscounted) cash flow to total invested capital and show that it is a genuine rate of return which, compared with the risk-adjusted cost of...

We propose a duration-based explanation for the major equity risk factors, including value, profitability, investment, low-risk, and payout factors. Both in the US and globally, these factors invest in firms that earn most of their cash flows in the near future. The factors could therefore be...

Investors' perception of performance is biased because the relevant measure, returns, is rarely displayed. Major indices ignore dividends, inducing mechanical underperformance on ex-dividend days. Newspapers are more pessimistic on these days, consistent with mistaking the index for a return....

We develop a classification methodology for the context and content of news articles to predict risk and return in stock markets in 51 developed and emerging economies. A parsimonious summary of news, including topic-specific sentiment, frequency, and unusualness (entropy) of word flow, predicts...

We develop a new method to estimate private equity funds' market beta from cash flows. Our methodology extends the widely known public market equivalent calculation to a cross-sectional regression. By simply regressing funds' internal rates of return on their paired market internal rates of...