Resorting to an extension of the debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe (JIE 1996), we evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country, which belongs to a monetary union and might suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. A default may...

Dekel, Lipman, and Rustichini (2001) show that preferences over menus of lotteries can be represented by the use of a unique subjective state space and a prior. We provide foundations for Bayesian updating in such a setup. When the subjective state space is finite, we show that Bayesian updating...

This paper presents a method for extracting risk neutral densities for exchange rate options. Implied volatility may be used as a forecast for future volatility and the predicted density to assess the future evolution of market expectations regarding prices in financial market. Implied skewness...

In this work we measure the evolution of the long-range dependence phenomenon of returns and volatilities of nominal British exchange rates (British pound against US dollar) futures contracts negotiated on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1986 to 2004. The measurement employs the R/S classic...

In the context of the stable roommates problem, it is shown that acyclicity of preferences is equivalent to the existence of symmetric utility functions, i.e. the utility of agent <i>i</i> when matched with <i>j</i> is the same as <i>j</i>'s utility when matched with <i>i</i>.

The article evaluates the performance of the small-scale macro model (SSMM) of the Central Bank of Brazil as a tool for supporting the monetary policy decision process. The forecasts of IPCA inflation for 1 to 3 quarters ahead were compared to market forecasts as well as to the projections of a...

This work develops an integrated model for optimal asset allocation in commercial banks that incorporates uncertain liquidity constraints that are currently ignored by RAROC and EVA models. While the economic profit accounts for the opportunity cost of risky assets, what may even incorporate a...

This paper investigates cost, technical and allocative efficiency for Brazilian banks in the recent period (2000-2007). The empirical results imply that non-performing loans is an important indicator of efficiency level, as well as market share. Evidence is in favor of the home field advantage...

This paper discusses the measures that were undertaken by the central bank of brazil in the crisis of 2008. Besides, it presents the lessons that can be learned from the crisis. these lessons cover i) the areas of monitoring and prevention; ii) the necessity of improving regulation mechanisms;...

Using survey data, we document that foreign-owned institutions became more pessimistic than locally owned institutions about the strength of the Brazilian currency around the 2002 presidential elections. As a result of their relative pessimism, foreign-owned institutions made larger forecast...