From data in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Credit Information System we empirically estimated the default correlation matrices of retail loans made between 2003 and 2008. The loan modalities studied were Consumer Credit and Vehicle Financing. We identified an increased probability and...

In this paper we present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which aims at evaluating the effects of trade globalization over inflation. The period of the inflation targeting regime (1999-2008) is employed to estimate the parameters for the Brazilian economy. The results show...

This paper models a fiscal policy that pursues primary balance targets to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio in an open and heterogeneous economy where firms combine public and private capital to produce their goods. The model extends the European NAWM presented in Coenen et. al. (2008) and...

This paper analyzes the efficiency of the Brazilian banking sector over the post-privatization period of 2000-2007. We employ a Bayesian stochastic frontier approach, which provides exact efficiency estimates and confidence intervals and thus, allows an accurate comparison across institutions...

The recent literature on real-time data analysis has shown that several economic activity measures go through important revisions over time, limiting the use of those measures. We organize a real-time data set for industrial production (IP) in Brazil and assess the revisions of the series of IP...

Economic agents make decisions using real-time data. However, recent literature has shown that several economic activity measures go through important revisions over time, impairing the reliability of real-time data. We organize a real-time dataset for Brazil’s GDP, and assess the revisions of...

A variety of models has been proposed for yield curve forecasting. In this paper we present a dynamic latent factor model for Brazilian interest rate term-structure forecasting, based in three major information sources: macroeconomic variables, surveys and risk premium. We use the proposed model...

This paper evaluates the loans market in Brazil in the 2003 to 2008 period. It measures diversification and nonperforming loans for Banks credit portfolios. We employ the credit risk bureau database, which classifies loans by sector and risk. Results show an increase in higher risk loans and...

We investigate the impact of the banking system concentration on the perception of financial institutions interdependencies, as measured by the correlations of their return on assets. This correlation is observed by the market, and may provide an indicator of systemic risk potential, which we...

One of the main variables observed in the performance evaluation of banking credit is the index that measures the default rate. Different approaches are used, or were proposed, to perform the calculation of this index. However, the difficulty of defining default leads to the creation of...