This paper has two objectives. One is to identify non anticipated monetary shocks using future contracts of DI. The second objective is to study the relation between these shocks and the term structure of interest rate. Our empirical evidence suggests that, albeit in a partial manner, the market...

This paper investigates macro stress testing of system-wide credit risk with special focus on the tails of the credit risk distributions conditional on bad macroeconomic scenarios. These tails determine the ex-post solvency probabilities derived from the scenarios. This paper estimates the...

This paper takes Brazilian data to an open economy DSGE model that features realistic aspects of fiscal policy in Brazil. The model incorporates primary surplus targets, cyclical expenditures and social programs in the form of public transfers, public investment and distortive taxation. We test...

This paper analyzes the impact of the changes in capital requirements on bank’s risk and the trade-off between economic activity and the risk of financial institutions in the Brazilian economy. Hence, an analysis based on dynamic panel data taking into account 73 banks and a vector...

Bank profitability is usually considered a relevant factor to provide the reliability of the financial system, reducing the risks associated to events of bankruptcy in this sector. In Brazil, however, there has been a great deal of discussion concerning the amount of earnings of financial...

Using a sample of 495 Latin American banks over the period 2001-2008, this paper investigates how bank concentration influences cost and profit efficiency. We calculate scale efficiency to assess whether these banks are close to their optimal size. We find that banks are more inefficient in...

This paper employs a general equilibrium approach to model the Brazilian financial system. We show that the model is able to replicate the main characteristics of the data and to predict short-term trends. The model is calibrated for the 2002-2006 period. Empirical results suggest that the...

The objective of this paper is to verify if exploiting the large data set available to the Central Bank of Brazil, makes it possible to obtain forecast models that are serious competitors to models typically used by the monetary authorities for forecasting inflation. Some empirical issues such...

We analyze inflation persistence in several industrial and emerging countries in the recent past by estimating reduced-form models of inflation dynamics. We select a very representative group of 23 industrial and 17 emerging economies. Our sample period is comprised of quarterly data and starts...