This paper discusses the effects of the recent financial crisis on the Brazilian banking system. It discusses how liquidity risks have risen during the crisis and preventive measures that were taken in order to cope with these risks. It presents the liquidity stress testing approach that is...

In this paper, we construct several multi-step-ahead density forecasts for the foreign exchange (FX) rate based on statistical, financial data and economic-driven approaches. The objective is to go beyond the standard conditional mean investigation of the FX rate and (for instance) allow for...

The goal of this paper is to present how a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) can be used by policy makers in the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the macroeconomics impacts of two monetary policy instruments: (i) short term interest rate and (ii) reserve requirements ratio. In...

This paper presents the framework employed by the Central Bank of Brazil for the projection of administered prices. Such framework is applied in the generation of short and medium term forecasts and combines econometric models with the “accounting” modeling based on expert analysis. The text...

The aim of this paper is to examine empirically whether the default of borrower companies in the Brazilian market rises in downturns. To this end, a probit model for the probability of default is developed based on credit microdata taken from the Credit Information System of the Central Bank of...

This paper shows the existence of Nash equilibrium for an economy with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, discrete time, infinite horizon, fiat money and one nondurable commodity. The commodity production remains constant for each period. However, the commodity endowments of individual agents...

The goal of this paper is to evaluate Brazilian stock market efficiency using daily data for the Sao Paulo Sock Exchange Index from January 1995 to December 2012. We employ a variance ratio statistic with wild bootstrap, developed to test linear dependency, to test for the Random Walk...

We study the role of court enforcement in shaping the impact of a financial reform on bank loans. We use micro-data on loans to manufacturing firms from the National Credit Registry of the Central Bank of Brazil matched with a measure of court congestion at judicial district level. We find that,...

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that PV relationships entail a weak-form SCCF restriction, as in Hecq et al. (2006) and in Athanasopoulos et al. (2011), and implies a polynomial serial correlation common feature relationship (Cubadda and Hecq, 2001). These represent...

In standard New Keynesian models, in which staggered pricing is the only nominal rigidity and shocks to preferences or technology are the only source of fluctuations, the literature has long agreed that the divine coincidence holds: the monetary authority is able to simultaneously stabilize the...