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Sentiments are characteristics of players' beliefs. I propose two notions of sentiments, confidence and optimism, and I … complementarities. Confidence is related to a player's perceived precision of information; optimism is the sentiment that the outcome of … of location, relating complementarities and optimism. I apply these results to four areas. In models of currency crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008568354
thinks his type is. The second characteristic, optimism, is related to how “favorable” a player expects the outcome of the … expressions that involve type-sensitivity, optimism, and payoff characteristics. Our results generalize and clarify the well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011049804
driven by voters' spending on private insurance and increased willingness to take risks when spared from disaster. I … electoral returns, risk-aversion, and private insurance inquiries. These results are politically meaningful not least because US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844636
We employ a novel approach to investigate the reasons for a low demand for agricultural insurance. We confirm that … farmers systematically undervalue agricultural insurance. First, we find that private transfers, mainly from family members …, explain under-valuation of agricultural insurance. Second, membership of a farmer's union, interpreted as a form of social …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011943900
We employ a novel approach to investigate the reasons for a low demand for agricultural insurance. We confirm that … farmers systematically undervalue agricultural insurance. First, we find that private transfers, mainly from family members …, explain under-valuation of agricultural insurance. Second, membership of a farmer's union, interpreted as a form of social …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894385
In an experimental setting impulse-response behaviour in intuitive inflation forecasting is analysed. Participants were asked to forecast future values of inflation for a fictitious economy after receiving charts and lists of past values of inflation and output gap. Thirty periods were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437484
Studies of strategic sophistication in experimental normal form games commonly assume that subjects' beliefs are consistent with independent choice. This paper examines whether beliefs are consistent with correlated choice. Players play a sequence of simple 2×2 normal form games with distinct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890126
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823853
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823943
We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times series, as in the seminal work by Bloomfield & Hales (2002) (BH), and stock price time series. We successfully...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285949