We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the United States using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1-2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the U.S....

We find that incorporating nonlinearities into tests of asset price bubbles has important consequences for the results. We show this by comparing four tests using S&P 500 data. Our results indicate that the modification which incorporates nonlinear probabilities outperforms the other models in...

We provide heterogenous agent foundations for regime-switching tests of asset price bubbles, and illustrate by applying the models to historical U.S. stock market data. While the tests remain unchanged, we show the specification of regimes can be based on the beliefs of investors that come from...

In this paper we test for large deviations in headline measures of the price level relative to core measures using the recently proposed test of Phillips et al. (2011a). We find evidence of explosive behaviour in the headline price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) relative to the...