We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...

This paper examines the transmission mechanism through which unconventional monetary policy affects long-term interest rates. I construct a real-time measure summarizing market projections of the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program, and...

In this paper, some probability inequalities and moment inequalities for widely orthant-dependent (WOD, in short) random variables are presented, especially the Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund type inequality and Rosenthal type inequality. By using these inequalities, we further study the complete...

In this paper, by relaxing the mixing coefficients to α(n) = O(n <Superscript>−β</Superscript>), β  3, we investigate the Bahadur representation of sample quantiles under α-mixing sequence and obtain the rate as <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$${O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}}(\log\log n\cdot\log n)^{\frac{1}{2}})}$$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Meanwhile, for any δ  0, by...</equationsource></inlineequation></superscript>

We extend the Brunk-Prokhorov strong law of large numbers and obtain a strong growth rate for martingale differences. Some results for demimartingales are also given.

Some exponential inequalities for a negatively orthant dependent sequence are obtained. By using the exponential inequalities, we study the asymptotic approximation of inverse moment for negatively orthant dependent random variables, which generalizes and improves the corresponding results of...

Fazekas and Klesov [Fazekas, I., Klesov, O., 2000. A general approach to the strong law of large numbers. Theory of Probability and its Applications 45, 436-449] established a Hájek-Rényi-type maximal inequality and obtained a strong law of large numbers (SLLN) for the sums of random...