This paper develops a model for understanding end-user order flow in the FX market. The model addresses several puzzling findings. First, the estimated price-impact of flow from different end-user segments is, dollar-for-dollar, quite different. Second, order flow from segments traditionally...

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...

Micro-based exchange-rate research examines the determination and behavior of spot exchange rates in an environment that replicates the key features of trading in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Traditional macro exchange-rate models play little attention to how trading in the FX market...

We empirically examine how the global carry trade affects the dynamics of spot exchange rates and interest rates across 13 countries from 2000, through the world financial crisis, until the end of 2011. Our model identifies the weekly carry trade position in each currency by matching data on...

We empirically examine how the global carry trade affects the dynamics of spot exchange rates and interest rates across 13 countries from 2000, through the world financial crisis, until the end of 2011. Our model identifies the weekly carry trade position in each currency by matching data on...

We empirically examine how the global carry trade affects the dynamics of spot exchange rates and interest rates across 13 countries from 2000, through the world financial crisis, until the end of 2011. Our model identifies the weekly carry trade position in each currency by matching data on...

The aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy. To do so, I first present a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional...

Empirical evidence shows that observed macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates (the exchange rate determination puzzle). On the other hand, the recent \microstructure approach to exchange rates" has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to...