A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in volatility measurement and forecasting performance through the use of realized volatilities constructed from high frequency returns coupled with relatively simple reduced-form time series modeling procedures. Building on...

This paper investigates the determinants of informal economic activity. We present two equilibrium models of informality and test their implications using a survey of 48,000+ small firms in Brazil. We define informality as tax avoidance; firms in the informal sector avoid tax payments but suffer...

This paper studies the identification of a simultaneous equation model where the variable of interest is a duration measure. It proposes a game theoretic model in which durations are determined by strategic agents. In the absence of strategic motives, the model delivers a version of the...

In this paper we show that a two sector model with human capital is able to generate persistence in output growth comparable to that observed in the postwar U.S. data. The key feature is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between human capital and raw labor in the production of human...

We study an individual who faces a dynamic decision problem in which the process of information arrival is unobserved by the analyst. We derive a sequence of representations of preferences over menus of acts that capture the individual's uncertainty about his future beliefs. Using the most...

Previous research has shown that the reasons for lapsation have important implications regarding the effects of the emerging life settlement market on consumer welfare. We present and empirically implement a dynamic discrete choice model of life insurance decisions to assess the importance of...

What can economists learn from dynamic partial control of chemical reactors? Both chemical reactors and the economy involve many variables that are difficult to fully predict or control. Thus, this paper suggests the use of partial control, which involves indentifying only the key variables that...