In this paper, we see how much the average monthly frequency of price changes ties down the behavior of firms in steady-state in terms of the average length of price-spells across firms. We use the UK CPI data at the aggregate and sectoral level and find that the actual mean is about twice the...

Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

Building on De Nicolò and Lucchetta (2010), this paper presents a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) reduced-form stress tests...

The study considers a stochastic R&D process where the invented production technologies consist of a large number n of complementary components. The degree of complementary is captured by the elasticity of substitution of the CES aggregator function. Drawing from the Central Limit Theorem and...

This paper considers sampling in proportion to size from a partly unknown distribution. The applied context is the exploration for undiscovered resources, like oil accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some geologic size...

In this paper, we see how much the average monthly frequency of price changes ties down the behavior of firms in steady-state in terms of the average length of price-spells across firms. We use the UK CPI data at the aggregate and sectoral level and find that the actual mean is about twice the...

The monthly frequency of price-changes is a prominent feature of many studies of the CPI micro-data. In this paper, we see how much this ties down the behavior of price-setters ("firms") in steady-state in terms of the average length of price-spells across firms. We are able to divide an upper...