By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the period over which any regularity of behaviour is...

The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union (EU) is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary policy which is appropriate to the stage of the...

Cover -- Half-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- 1 A primer on collateralised debt obligations -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Securitisation and tranching -- 1.3 Credit derivative products -- 1.3.1 Credit default swaps (CDSs) -- 1.3.1.1 Forward...

The impact of climate events on the economic and financial systems is of particular interest as societies navigate the transition towards a net-zero state (dealing with both physical and transition risk). Agent based models are a powerful modelling technique that can be used to model these...